Sorry for my laziness and it’s time to say sth about my current situation
I graduated
And came back my home city, hong kong last week
So as Denis (how’s ur return trip? Safe?)
The old word, it’s pretty busy after returning from my last semester break
Projects and deadline are horrible
I break my non-sleep record of forthy-sth hour on my investment project, but we get poor grade
Honestly, I think the professor quality of ANU finance and statistics faulty is really average, from my observation
I blame at them not becoz of i get poor grade from this project (note: I still get good overall grade in all finance courses), I get plenty of solid evidence to prove that
But I better skip the details, as it’s not the main content of this diary
However, I like the course syllabus and organization. That’s why I pick those courses I pick. So I still recommend people to study overseas instead of studying in HK
Anyway, I graduated and so I better skip all topics about course work
Back home, and start finding jobs
Everyday need to spend a few hours reading ads, writing and sending letters
I am confident about my ability, but deed a bit worry about whether I can get a good start in my 1st job
You know it’s somewhat depend on luck
A Chinese proverb states: Man proposes, God Disposes (謀事在人,成事在天)
So every time when my fran ask me what will u work at,
My ans is always: “I can only tell you what I plan to apply, like xxx. But what exactly I will work at? Who knows?”
But I trust chance is prepared for man with adequate preparation
So I will handle my preparation well
To avoid the feeling of empty during the persistent job application period as many of my frans did, I start to force myself to develop some customs besides job app.
Learning English must be one of them (poor man, most people treasure the chance of studying English after graduation, instead of format English class before graduation)
Now I am reviewing cycle theory or timing investing, with the intent to solve the individual problem of technical and fundamental analysis, as well as to combine these 2 techniques)
Seems I haven’t mentioned anything about stock market for half a year, in writing or in oral form
A part of that is due to my heavy coursework (err…okay, I stop it)
But the main cause is: there’s nth to say indeed
Stage 2 of bear market is characterized as boring and lack of main direction
But now many people is crying: bull market is coming
Some US official institution announce they predict the US real economy recession has already completed at Nov last year
Analysts claimed on the financial TV show although the index retreat this few days, there are still a HIGHER POSSIBILITY for the index to continue go up in the near future
What do you think about all these optimistic ideas?
Does the recession end so quickly? Obviously not!!
We are talking about an real estate bubble busting in the world’s largest market, US
In Japan, they spend >17 years to go out of recession (I use‘>’ sign since it’s not yet ended); In Hong Kong, we spend 6 years to escape from recession
How can US exit recession so early?
Considering the fact that peak season for mortgage rate adjustment being 2010 to 2011, it’s nearly for sure that US recession will continue in the following few years
How many years? Who knows? (But for sure not as few as 2-3 years)
Fortunately, china is the 1st country to exit the recent bear market
It’s certain that the new bull market start a few months ago, so it’s a good strategy to invest your money in A-50 fund now
But need to be patient that the A stock won’t surge so quickly in the coming years, due to the characteristic of wave 1 of a bull market as well as the current external situation
Let’s talk about HK stock
Squeeze in between US and China, HK stock is still lack of direction now
But I will absolutely not put any money on HK stock market now even if I have
The HSI is now 20234, the next resistant line in 21300
And the ultimate resistant line would be 23700
The rebound of HSI can end at any point around 21300 or 23700
So it’s not a wise decision for being long position in HK stock now
Where is the next station? Who knows
But I would guess: approaching towards the direction below 11000
Disclaimer:
All predictions listed above are for training purpose of my personal prediction and interpretation ability and would not constitute as an investment recommendation (sounds similar to those disclaimers on financial TV show or marketing leaflet of financial products? haha)
We have our first meeting for applied investment team today
It’s totally overrun from our original estimation of 2 hr to more the 3 hr
As the requirement is a bit tricky and in some aspect difficult to handle
And some of our groupmates haven’t any financial background before
But luckily we still have a groupmate who have done similar course before and another aussie groupmate doing master of finance
I am not sure if we will cooperate as well as the team with Ace and Tony, but it should be much better than one of the team we form last semester
Tonight I have invited Frank to join a Champagne Ball organized by AFEC
I think we have made a bright decision and ball is really good
At least we met a lot of ppl (don’t know if we still hv chance to see them again and become fran), and gain a lot of valuable information from those practitioners
I think those mentors invited tonight is very helpful, nice and most important honest
Much better than those mentors invited in those…dinner organized by Hong Kong Institute of Engineering I join in HK
I start to gain some experience on what’s going on in these foreign Balls
A ‘party’ with only alcoholic drink and no else
People are standing in a relatively crowded room, meeting and chatting with many strangers,
And rotates just like a cycle or table-for-six(without table)
Introduce yourself unlimited time,
and u better to be prepare to know as much aspect as possible,
As u need to talk with them in whatever topic they may start
This is also one of an essential soft skill a senior I met tonight told me, yes communication skill is far boarder than language, accent, pronunciation, interpersonal skill, but also the scope of topics that you can talk at
This is not what you can lend from any class or books
But you need to play more and spend time to socialize
I am still a student in this subject
So there’s still a lot to learn
It’s only 4 to 5 month left before I finished my master
The passage of time is quick
Always feel it’s not enough for my student life
But for sure I will treasure the remaining time and gain more before to go
I think the work load on this semester is even higher than the previous one, which can be observed from the starting week I feel busy
Just finish one of the most important and high work-loaded presentation today
I think we did it very well
This time I group with another Chinese girl from nang jing
I don’t know what marks do I got right now,
But I find some classmates give us full marks and I guess most of them appreciate our performance from their response and reply during and after the presentation
The topic we in charge of is money politics in Japanese construction industry
Yes...it is ’money politics’…not ‘monetary policy’
I also misunderstand the topic at the beginning when I choose the topic
I don’t pretend to take this, but anyway I need to prepare for it
It’s construction industry again, which I should be very familiar with
But this time I am not involved in it in the technical view point any more,
Instead, I focus on the tendering/bidding system, pricing system, political inter-relationship…
So what from a business, political and economic point of view
That’s much more interesting and useful to work on that this time and for this purpose
The most troublesome work finished
But my study progress lags behind for nearly a whole week
I need to catch up in this week with 2 weeks’ work
I never get sick since I come to Australia, may be it’s an indication of good air quality here
But I just got flu these days, after one of my peer sitting next to me ‘generously share’ his several cough last Sunday
So I need to force myself sleep earlier and take panadol regularly now…
I need to get well soon as huge number of readings and study is waiting for me, so no time left for me to get sick
Hope I can be fine by this weekend, otherwise I may not be able to be the back-singer in Sunday worship this week
Haven’t aware of the stock market right now as frequent as before,
Since not much to observe, and indeed not much profit opportunities from the stock market up to now
But that doesn’t mean the market is peaceful,
It seems the 2nd wave of financial crisis is on its way to come
If the majority announcements of the coming financial performance of those listed companies get red, that should be an indication and everyone please get prepare to the subsequent wave, in similar scale as the wave last year
The main character of the next episode would be our real economy
So not just those banking stocks (even HSBC), but also the stock in manufacturing, service and retailing industry
I personally believe Hong Kong would recover better and earlier in this crisis compared with the one in 1997,
But even so, 2 to 3 years hard time is unavoidable
It should still be very hard to find job at the time I graduate,
It should be expected,
That’s true!! Please face to the reality and don’t request for unreasonable remuneration anymore, HK graduates!!
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